Lake Isabella, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

482
FXUS66 KHNX 221155
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
355 AM PST Mon Dec 22 2025

.UPDATE...

Updated Aviation Section.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A Flood Watch is in effect for the Sierra Nevada below 9,000
feet and foothills, mainly Yosemite, as well as Mariposa and
Madera Counties until Today. The Flood Watch will then cover
all portions of our forecast area from Tuesday afternoon until
Friday afternoon.

2. Chances for precipitation, with moderate to heavy amounts at
times, continue for the Sierra Nevada and its foothills from
Fresno County northwards through Tuesday morning.

3. A second, stronger system is expected to arrive by Tuesday
afternoon, with a moderate risk for heavy precipitation
throughout Central California, and a moderate risk for heavy
snow in the Sierra Nevada expected from Christmas Eve through
Friday of next week.

4. A High Wind Watch is in effect for the Coastal Range, the
Tehachapi Range, The Kern Desert and the south end of the San
Joaquin Valley near Bakersfield starting at 4 PM PST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showery weather is largely north of our forecast area, except it
has been passing since this afternoon over the far northern
portions of Yosemite, based on latest radar imagery. Additional
showers may fluctuate a little bit south later tonight into
Monday morning, but still confined to northern portions of our
area, mainly north of Fresno County. There are slight (15-20%)
chances for precipitation to begin early Tuesday, but greater
probabilities begin late Tuesday afternoon. Most locations have
some chance of precipitation by then, including into the Kern
County desert. Also, during Tuesday evening and the overnight
hours into Wednesday, gusty southerly winds arrive along with
the initial surge of precipitation. The strongest gusts are
shown over the higher terrain along the west side of the San
Joaquin Valley to the Grapevine. Advisory level gusts (40-50
mph) have a greater chance to materialize, except some isolated
gusts near 60 mph or a little stronger are not out of the
question.

The bulk of the precipitation is in store from late Tuesday
night until Wednesday night, although copious amounts will
also occur during into Christmas Day into the following
evening as another surge passes over our region.
Probabilities for locations to exceed one inch per 24 hours:

Ending Wednesday 4 PM

San Joaquin Valley - 60-70%, except 40-50% in rain shadowed
areas
Coastal Ranges - 80-90%
Sierra foothills - 90 to near 100% (amounts exceeding 2 inches
at 70-80 percent)
Sierra Nevada - 90 to near 100% (and 80-90% chance to exceed
2 inches including locations expecting snowfall)
Kern County desert- 60-70%

Ending Christmas Day 4 PM

San Joaquin Valley- 50-60%, except 30-40% in rain shadowed
areas
Coastal Ranges - 50-60%
Sierra foothills - 90 to near 100% northern half, 60-70%
southern half
Sierra Nevada - 90 to near 100% mainly north, otherwise
60-70% Tulare & Kern Counties
Kern County desert - 25-35%

Snow accumulations above 6,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada will
be measured in feet, with several feet above 8,000 feet. A
30-40 chance of at least an inch of snow to reach near 6,000
feet exists for portions of Kern County, including over the
mountains from south of Lake Isabella to the Frazier Park
area on Thursday night into Friday. Thus, at least at this
time, the main issues over the passes in Kern County will be
winds and heavy rain.

The other thing to watch out for will be gusty winds in the
Kern County desert and the adjacent slopes from Wednesday
until Friday. Probabilities for 45 mph gusts for a 24 hour
period between Wednesday night to Thursday night peak at
60-70%.

By Friday, the cold front passes, although an upper-level trough
remains situated along the West Coast into the weekend that
will produce lingering showers. Snow levels will lower a bit
during this period (right now at around 5,000 feet for Saturday
until next Sunday), although we will monitor for the potential
of any impacts to the passes in Kern County. Above average
precipitation is still favored in our area beyond next
weekend. The 6-10 day outlook shows about a 40 to 50 percent
chance, while the 8-14 day outlook lowers to 33-40 percent.
A slight tilt in the odds towards above average
temperatures is shown for both periods.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR to IFR ceilings due to precipitation over the Sierra
Nevada and adjacent foothills from Fresno County northward are
expect over the next 24 hours. MVFR conditions are expected at
times for mainly northern portions of the San Joaquin Valley
from 09Z-18Z Monday due to -SHRA. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail over the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Monday December 22 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status
is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera
Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare
Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia
National Park and Forest.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday afternoon
for CAZ300>317-319>322-327>339.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday
afternoon for CAZ300-304-308-309-313-314-316-333>339.

Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for CAZ318-323>326.

Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ323.

Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Friday
afternoon for CAZ326>331.

&&

$$

Aviation....Molina

weather.gov/hanford